All of the usual NFL preseason futures wagers are available for sports betting in Maryland regarding the winner of the Super Bowl, plus conference and division champions. But also, there are a fistful of individual performance prop bets to challenge fans.
One of the most interesting individual prop bets, considering some offseason developments, is the season total rushing yardage for Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Even the most casual NFL fan knows that the most arresting part of Jackson’s game has been his running.
Over five seasons and 61 regular-season starts, Jackson has run for 4,471 yards, an average of almost 73 yards per start.
Unfortunately for Jackson and the Ravens, the QB has made just 12 starts in each of the past two seasons because of injury.
Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop Betting
The prop bet for the “over” for Jackson’s rushing yards in the 2023 season stands at more than 800. The total is 875.5 yards (+110) at DraftKings Maryland, and 825.5 yards (at -115 odds) with Caesars Sportsbook.
Under normal circumstances, those would be intriguing numbers. But the plot thickens when one tries to handicap the Ravens’ offseason.
As Jackson’s contract situation was finally being resolved, the Ravens signaled clearly that their offensive philosophy is in for an overhaul. Baltimore was one of the top rushing teams in the NFL over the past five seasons with offensive coordinator Greg Roman. But now the Ravens are shifting to more passing under new OC Todd Monken.
And there’s more.
Crucial Recent Additions For Ravens Offense
Baltimore’s top free agent signing was high-profile veteran wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. The Ravens’ first-round draft pick was Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers, who runs a 4.42 40-yard dash. And they have two other former first-round WRs on the roster, Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor, plus Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews. Those are important considerations for the Ravens, who are +2000 with BetMGM Maryland to win the Super Bowl.
However, the most significant factor might be Jackson’s mind-set.
He has said it out loud: Less running, more passing.
"Running can only take you so far," Jackson was quoted as saying. "And I feel like with this new era of teams and offenses in the league, I feel like we need that.”
There’s also a sense that Jackson will have greater autonomy under center. Given the opportunity to exploit a defense he feels is stacked against his running, it’s entirely possible that Jackson will audible to more pass plays.
J.K. Dobbins Can Carry Rushing Load
On top of all that, the Ravens might have a genuine running back in J.K. Dobbins. Despite dealing with knee injuries in 2021 and 2022, Dobbins has some flashy statistics. Over 226 career rushing attempts, he averages 5.9 yards per carry, and he had 62 yards and a touchdown (on just 13 carries) in the Ravens’ last game, a playoff loss to Cincinnati.
Meanwhile, oddsmakers put Dobbins’ rushing yardage over/under at 875 – those using the Caesars Maryland promo code can get either side of that prop at -115 odds – which would indicate his role as a mainstay in the offense.
So, given Dobbins’ ability to produce and Jackson’s overall long-term value to the team – his new contract is for five years, $260 million – it is hardly far-fetched to think that Baltimore will lean on Dobbins for its meat-and-potatoes running game. The team could reserve Jackson for specialty running situations and the impromptu game-breaking play.
What’s The Play For Jackson Rushing Prop?
So, in weighing the Jackson “over” number for rushing yardage, a bettor using a Maryland sportsbook app option should take into consideration all the deliberate offseason moves the Ravens have taken, from coaching to personnel, to emphasize passing. And just as important is Jackson’s own implied ambition to match up with the NFL’s more pass-inclined quarterbacks.
Take all of those factors together, and some bettors might feel strongly that the considered move is to fade a Jackson rushing yardage number that stands at well above 800 yards.
For this wager, or any other offseason futures bet a customer might want to make on (or against) the Baltimore Ravens, turn to BetMaryland for the best Maryland sports betting promo codes available.
