How Likely Is Lamar Jackson To Break NFL Rushing Yards Mark for QBs?

How Likely Is Lamar Jackson To Break NFL Rushing Yards Mark for QBs?
Fact Checked by Jim Tomlin

When Michael Vick set the current career rushing yardage mark for an NFL quarterback in 2011 as a Philadelphia Eagle, he broke the record that had been held by a previous Eagle QB, Randall Cunningham. And Cunningham in 1992 eclipsed a mark that Hall of Famer Fran Tarkenton had held for about a quarter-century.

However, Vick’s record, which has stood at 6,109 yards since his last game in 2015. might be broken by a number of new era quarterbacks. Leading the group is Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. So, as part of our coverage of sports betting in Maryland, came up with our own odds of which quarterbacks might surpass Vick’s mark.

Odds Of Passing Vick’s Record (6,109 Yards)

Quarterback, Team Rush Yds Chance to Catch Vick Odds
Russell Wilson, Broncos 4,966 7.4% +1250
Lamar Jackson, Ravens 4,437 95.3% -2000
Josh Allen, Bills 3,087 47.7% +110
Kyler Murray, Cardinals 2,204 1.1% +9000
Ryan Tannehill, Titans 2,029 0.1% +100000
Jalen Hurts, Eagles 1,898 63.6% -175
Deshaun Watson, Browns 1,852 0.4% +25000
Daniel Jones, Giants 1,708 0.6% +15000
Dak Prescott, Cowboys 1,642 0.1% +100000
Justin Fields, Bears 1,563 66.6% -200 – your source for the best Maryland sports betting promos – developed hypothetical odds of each active quarterback who we think has a chance of surpassing Vick’s 6,109 rushing yards in their careers. Taken into consideration were current rushing production, average QB career length, and regression, when developing the odds.

Lamar Jackson Rushing Record Odds

The Ravens’ Jackson, with 4,437 rushing yards and who will be just 26 when the new season starts, is given the best chance of breaking the Vick record. So far, Jackson is averaging nearly 900 rushing yards a season, which has included 61 starts, and he recently signed a five-year, $260 million contract extension.

His health and productivity will have a large bearing on the Baltimore Ravens playoff chances all season.

With all the factors taken into account, we calculated the odds to be a prohibitive -2000. That moneyline would translate to a 95.2% chance that Jackson will leave Vick in his wake and rewrite the record books.

So -- as a hypothetical wager -- if someone wanted to bet on Jackson breaking Vick’s record, the bettor would have to wager $2,000 to win just $100.


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Others With Chance Of Passing Vick

The quarterback with the second-best chance, by some measures, of breaking the Vick record is Chicago’s Justin Fields. His odds are -200, for a 66.6% chance. Remember, you won’t find these odds at Maryland sportsbook apps, but exclusively here at

But Fields’ challenge is holding onto the starting QB job over the long haul. While he has 1,563 yards in just two seasons and is a spectacular runner, his record as a starting QB is 5-20. He and the Bears will have to do better than that for him to remain a starting quarterback.

The No. 3 likely candidate to break the Vick record is Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. At -175 odds, Hurts has a 63.6% chance of reaching the Vick milestone. Hurts has 1,898 career rushing yards over 34 starts in two-plus seasons. If his career trajectory continues on its 2022 arc, when he took Philadelphia to the Super Bowl, his anticipated longevity could get him past Vick.

His Eagles enter the season as a +300 favorite to repeat as NFC champions with BetMGM Maryland sportsbook. Their +800 odds to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM are second on the board behind the defending world champion Kansas City Chiefs.

Still another quarterback with a solid chance to catch Vick is Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen. His hypothetical odds are +110, just about even money, and we rate his chances at 47.7%. Allen has 3,087 rushing yards in 76 starts over five seasons. The question, in Allen’s case, is whether his running will diminish as his career continues and he depends more on his arm.

The active quarterback with the most rushing yards entering the 2023 season is Denver’s Russell Wilson with 4,966. But Wilson’s age – he’s 34 and going into his 12th NFL season – means that Father Time is his biggest adversary in reaching any rushing yardage records. Wilson’s longshot odds are +1250, meaning we think his chances to pass Vick are 7.4%.

For more NFL coverage plus Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl odds, track all season.



A longtime reporter and editor who began writing on casinos and gaming shortly after Atlantic City’s first gambling halls opened, Bill covered the World Series of Poker and wrote a syndicated column on travel to casino destinations for a decade.

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