How Do Players Perform After Getting The Franchise Tag?

NFL Franchise Tag: Will Ravens’ Justin Madubuike Be Worth It?

March 6, 2024 10:47am

There aren’t a lot of defensive linemen with the dexterity and skill that Baltimore Ravens’ veteran Justin Madubuike has shown in 59 games with the franchise. Those attributes led the Ravens to lock up the former third-round pick to a one-year franchise tag ahead of yesterday’s deadline.

Madubuike finished last season with 13 sacks and an approximate value (AV) of 15 across 17 games, which doubled his career total to 30 AV. He also made the NFL’s All-Pro team for the first time. The performance of Madubuike is another reason why fans were disappointed and Maryland sports betting a little stunned when the Ravens fell short of the Super Bowl.

Now, Madubuike will look to prove himself more than worthy of a long-term deal, following in the footsteps of fellow Raven Lamar Jackson as a success story among recently tagged players.

BetMaryland.com – your source for Maryland sports betting apps - wanted to see how players performed after getting the franchise tag. Utilizing Pro-Football-Reference.com, we calculated the positive or negative difference between a franchise-tagged players’ season before and after the tag occurred. We then found the average approximate value per player of the last three franchise tag classes combined.

How Franchise Tagged Players Perform After Deals

Franchise Tag Class	# of Players Franchise Tagged	Total Approximate Value (YoY change)	Average Approximate Value (YoY change)
2023	6	-12	-2.0 per player
2022	8	-2	-0.25 per player
2021	10	-6	-0.60 per player
3-Year Span	24	-20	-0.83 per player

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Can Madubuike Succeed with Franchise Tag?

Madubuike finds himself on the Caesars Maryland oddsboard for Defensive Player of the Year. He is at +4000, which places him behind teammate Kyle Hamilton (+3000) and in a four-way tie for 13^th. He now will try to outperform the franchise tag.

A theme has emerged from the last three franchise tag classes that few involved would like to see. The players tagged have seen a drop in average approximate value of .83 AV on average over the last three years.

Of the 24 players who have been tagged between 2021 and 2023, the total lost AV was -20, with the 2023 class seeing the largest decline (-12 AV across six players). The 2022 class had the smallest drop-off (-2 AV across eight players).

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is a franchise tag success story. He had a +7 year-over-year improvement in AV (12 to 19 AV) between 2022 and 2023. The former Heisman winner took home his second NFL MVP trophy along the way. Throw in Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott’s +8 AV improvement, from 6 AV in 2020 to 14 AV in 2021, and you have a picture of the successes that can come after a player is tagged.

The biggest recent drop-off among tagged players was running back Josh Jacobs (from 15 AV in 2022 to 6 AV in 2023). Wide receiver Allen Robinson (11 AV in 2020 to 3 AV in 2021) was the next closest.

For Madubuike and the Ravens, the hope is that the fifth-year defensive tackle out of Texas A&M can find a way to match the value he compiled in 2023.

Count on BetMaryland.com to keep you informed with sports betting news and analysis on the Ravens as well as providing Maryland sportsbook promos.

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