How Do NFL MVPs Perform the Following Season?

How Do NFL MVPs Perform the Following Season?
Fact Checked by Pat McLoone

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has shined once again, being awarded the NFL’s Most Valuable Player for the 2023 season.

Maryland sports betting is always in an NFL mindset. So, to get a jump on next season, BetMaryland.com explored how the MVP fared the following season. 
 
BetMaryland.com — your source for Maryland sports betting promo codes â€” anticipates the Ravens having another successful season. Based on data from Pro-Football-Reference.com, we found the average records for teams the year after an MVP award is 10-6. Out of the past 10 MVPs, only two had losing records the following season: Cam Newton with the Carolina Panthers in 2016 and Aaron Rodgers with the Green Bay Packers in 2022. In fairness to Rodgers, he appears on our chart three times and the Packers had a winning season in two of three.

Here are the results: 

Past Performance of NFL MVPs

MVPTeamPost MVPW-L RecordNext Season, Playoffs
Patrick Mahomes (2022)Chiefs11-61st in AFC West,Won Super Bowl
Aaron Rodgers (2021)Packers8-93rd in NFC North
Aaron Rodgers (2020)Packers13-41st in NFC North,Lost in Divisional Round
Lamar Jackson (2019)Ravens11-51st in AFC North,Lost in Divisional Round
Patrick Mahomes (2018)Chiefs12-41st in AFC West,Won Super Bowl
Tom Brady (2017)Patriots11-51st in AFC East,Won Super Bowl
Matt Ryan (2016)Falcons10-63rd in NFC South,Lost in Divisional Round
Cam Newton (2015)Panthers6-104th in NFC South
Aaron Rodgers (2014)Packers10-62nd in NFC North,Lost in Divisional Round
Peyton Manning (2013)Broncos12-41st in AFC West,Lost in Divisional Round
Average W-LPost MVP Season10-6

 

Jackson’s Been Here Before

Jackson is in familiar territory here, having won his first MVP award in 2019, a season in which he completed 265 of 401 passes (66.1%) for 3,127 yards, 36 touchdowns and six interceptions. The following season, the Ravens went 11-5 to capture the AFC North Division but lost in the Divisional Round to the Buffalo Bills, 17-3.

Fast forward to this season, in which Jackson picked up his second MVP trophy by completing 307 of 457 passes (most in a season, both categories) for 3,678 yards, 24 TDs and seven INTs.

As the top seed, the Ravens Super Bowl odds looked bright with the league’s best record, but Jackson and the Ravens stumbled in the postseason. Baltimore, the top seed, lost at home in the AFC Championship to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, 17-10. Jackson completed 20 of 37 passes in that game for 272 yards, one TD and one INT. He also had eight carries for 54 yards rushing.

His opponent that day, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, won the Super Bowl twice after winning the MVP (2018, 2022).

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Caesars Sportsbook Early Futures

A big drop-off for the Ravens is not expected, of course. Across Maryland betting apps, the Ravens are highly regarded for next season just days after the Super Bowl.

For example, at Caesars Sportsbook Maryland, the early future odds for the 2024 season are +900 for Baltimore. That makes the Ravens the third favorite to win Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans, behind the back-to-back champion Chiefs (+625) and the Super Bowl runner-up San Francisco 49ers (+550). The Ravens are at (+480) to win the AFC, behind the Chiefs (+350).

Jackson, who will enter his seventh season in the Charm City, is the fourth choice at +1000 to win MVP, behind Mahomes (+650), Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+800) and the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow (+900).

All signs point to another good season for Jackson and the Ravens. However, will it be enough to get Baltimore over the hump and into the Super Bowl?

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Author

Lou Monaco
Lou Monaco
Reporter/Journalist

Lou Monaco had been East Coast Scene columnist for Gaming Today in Las Vegas since June 2019, covering the East Coast sportsbook scene with emphasis on NJ and PA. He also currently is a part-time writer for the high school sports department for NJ Advanced Media (NJ.com) in Iselin, NJ. Lou has over 30 years sports experience with previous stints at ESPN SportsTicker, Daily Racing Form and Oddschecker.

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